Nigeria, often referred to as the "Giant of Africa," is a nation abundant in natural resources and boasts the largest population on the continent, with approximately 219 million individuals. It is projected that Nigeria will experience significant population growth, reaching an estimated 377 million people by 2050. Nonetheless, this growth poses challenges to the country's already strained natural resources, as carbon emissions continue to rise and deforestation rates increase.
POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS
Nigeria, with a population of 219 million, stands out as Africa's most populous and economically significant country. Projections suggest that by 2051, Nigeria could surpass the United States to become the world's third most populous nation. This swift population expansion is fueled by a large number of young people reaching reproductive age; presently, half of Nigeria's populace is under 19 years old. Despite boasting some of Africa's wealthiest citizens, Nigeria struggles with pronounced wealth disparities, with two-thirds of its population living below the poverty threshold.
SUSCEPTIBILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE
Nigeria is highly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. The coastal city of Lagos, located on the country's coastline, is at risk of sea-level rise. A United Nations report has stated that many communities in the Niger Delta area have already lost their homes or are concerned about losing them due to coastal erosion.
Moreover, the escalating global temperatures represent a significant danger to the Nigerian populace, with an anticipated upsurge in the occurrence of heatwaves. Nigeria's Climate Risk profile predicts that over 20% of the population will be exposed to heatwaves that have a severe impact on public health. Additionally, the majority of regions in Nigeria are expected to have roughly 90 more extremely hot periods.
NON RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES
The Nigerian economy heavily depends on exporting oil and gas, with revenue from fossil fuels constituting 93% of the nation's export earnings. In 2023, Nigeria produced 129 metric tons of CO2, positioning it as the fourth highest emitter in Africa.
Most of Nigeria's greenhouse gas emissions stem from the oil and gas industry, involving the release of undesired gases, predominantly methane, into the atmosphere via a procedure called "gas venting." Methane, a potent greenhouse gas, is 28 times more powerful than carbon dioxide.
Another activity referred to as "gas flaring" entails the combustion of surfaced gases, leading to the emission of carbon dioxide as a secondary product, thereby exacerbating emissions. Nigeria engaged in gas flaring, expelling roughly 6.6 billion cubic meters of gas in 2021, positioning it as the seventh largest contributor to global gas flaring.
Although Nigeria produces a large amount of oil and gas, it still has one of the highest proportions of its population suffering from energy poverty in the world. Energy poverty is defined by the World Economic Forum as a lack of access to modern energy services and products, which means that people do not have sufficient options to obtain reliable, affordable, safe, and environmentally suitable energy services. In Nigeria, 86 million individuals do not have access to electricity, and power blackouts are widespread affecting most of the population. Energy poverty is predominantly found in rural areas where residents rely on kerosene and firewood, which leads to indoor air pollution and contributes to deforestation in Nigeria.
SUSTAINABILITY PLEDGES
Nigeria is a signatory to the Paris Agreement, the international pledge made by countries to lower their carbon emissions.
In its first climate policy submitted under the Paris Agreement in 2017, Nigeria committed to cutting its greenhouse gas emissions by 20% below business-as-usual levels by 2030.
In 2021, Nigeria passed the Climate Change Act, and reaffirmed its commitment to reducing its emissions by 20% below business-as-usual levels by 2030, potentially increasing to a 47% reduction given international assistance. Climate Action Tracker evaluates Nigeria’s unconditional 2030 target as “1.5C compatible”, per the terms of the Paris Agreement. In 2022, Nigeria publicized its Energy Transition Plan, its strategy to attain net-zero emissions by 2060. Under the plan, Nigeria has set goals to eliminate gas flaring by 2030.
Yet, a number of independent research groups have criticized the plan's dependence on expanding natural gas, which the government proclaimed as the "decade of gas." The ETP seeks to utilize gas as a "transition fuel," with a massive increase in gas use for national electricity in household and industrial sectors by 2030, before phasing out gas by 2050 for renewable energy sources. However, this plan carries the risk of locking Nigeria into carbon-intensive infrastructure, with industries designed around and dependent on gas power. Nigeria's quickly growing population will generate an enormous demand for energy, placing even greater pressure on the later shift to renewable energies like wind and solar.
FOREST DEPLETION
Nigeria boasts extensive forest coverage in its southern regions, encompassing swamp forests and tropical rainforests, while the central areas feature wooded grasslands known as savanna. Nonetheless, Nigeria is experiencing alarmingly rapid forest depletion, outpacing deforestation rates elsewhere globally. Annually, Nigeria loses 3.7% of its total forest area due to deforestation.The World Economic Forum pointed to poverty as a major cause of deforestation in Nigeria. Impoverished rural communities rely on forests for firewood, housing, food, and financial stability. Forests are being cleared for farming, with unlawful cocoa plantations spreading into protected rainforest reserves.
Nigeria's rapid population growth has surpassed job creation efforts, resulting in the economy struggling to accommodate the influx of 5 million new job seekers annually. This burgeoning population is exerting additional pressure on existing infrastructure and available resources. With limited employment opportunities in urban areas, many graduates are resorting to illicit cocoa farming and other alternative income sources.
Moreover, commercial logging, whether legal or illegal, significantly contributes to deforestation in Nigeria. Inadequate enforcement of forestry regulations and instances of corruption have perpetuated an ongoing crisis of illegal logging.
Additionally, the country is experiencing rapid urbanization, with the urban population expected to double over the next two decades. Urbanization fuels deforestation as more individuals adopt urban lifestyles, characterized by heightened resource consumption. This leads to forest clearance for urban expansion and to meet the rising demand for agriculture.
At the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, the Nigerian government promised to put an end to deforestation by 2030.
Nigeria is also taking part in the Great Green Wall project, which is trying to stop deforestation, desertification, and environmental damage across Africa. Nigeria is working together with 22 other African countries on this project.
The Great Green Wall project is hoping to meet several goals by 2030: restoring 100 million hectares of land that has been damaged, absorbing 250 million tons of carbon dioxide, and creating 10 million green jobs in rural areas. However, progress on the Great Green Wall has been slow. As of 2023, only 44 million acres of damaged land have been restored, which is 18% of the total goal.
CONCLUSION
The Nigerian government has acknowledged the necessity to tackle climate change, but weakens its strategy by persisting with rhetoric stating the requirement for oil and gas growth. Nigeria's quickly increasing population is the fundamental cause of its rising energy needs, expanding agricultural sector, and mounting urbanization - the consequences of which are causing environmental degradation.